Register For Our Mailing List

Register to receive our free weekly newsletter including editorials.

Home / 406

Why does Australia’s skewed stock market underperform?

Australia’s mix of industries in its economy is broadly similar to all advanced economies. It is dominated by the fast-growing information and financial sectors (quaternary) as well as health, hospitality, culture and other service themes (quinary), as we see below.

Indeed, these two sectors, mainly growing fast in the post-industrial age since the mid-1960s, now account for almost 60% of our GDP.

Agriculture is tiny but mining stands out

Agriculture is a fraction of the importance it had in the 1960s and is nearly as tiny a share as the USA’s 1% of their GDP, such has been the increasing capital-intensity of agriculture that has displaced its millenniums-long labour-intensity.

But our mining industry stands out with over 10% of our GDP compared with other developed economies where this industry is a quarter or less of that importance. And it is reflected in our exports where over half our half our $400+ billion are minerals. More if downstream manufactures are added.

Stock market weightings, Australia v US

Which leads to our industry shares in the stock market, which is skewed both by minerals and financial services. As shown in the exhibit below, these two industry divisions account for a whopping 55% of the ASX's total market capitalisation.

This mix stands in vivid contrast to that of the USA, where these two divisions account for around 17% (a sixth) compared with Australia’s well over a half.

The USA has a stock market much more in tune with the new Infotronics Age of services, information and communication technologies (ICT) that displaced the goods industries and utilities of the Industrial Age up to the mid- 1960s. Their information technology sector (23% of the market capitalisation) rivals our mining industry for relative size. Then add the communications sector (10%) and ICT in total is a third of the market. It is bigger than either our minerals sector or financial services sector.

But does that explain our underperformance?

Does our skew to minerals and financial services explain why our All Ords has underperformed both the Dow Jones and NASDAQ for over 30 years and been left in their wake in the last 10 years?

No, that’s not the reason: profitability and wealth creation (dividends and share price growth) are independent of the industry. Any industry can have players with world best practice (WBL) performance. We have WBP performers in all our 19 industry divisions (as described in the first exhibit on our industry mix). As does the USA and most other advanced economies.

Other explanations often used are equally untrue, including: population size, fewer hi-tech companies, distance from markets, corporate tax regime and others.

Why are Australian companies not more profitable?

About one in 10 Australian companies achieve WBP profitability over 5-year periods while four in 10 companies do so in the USA.

The real reasons why we are lagging are more fundamental. We break too many of the keys to success rules and the most frequently breached are shown in the table below. We have to get smarter and understand strategic planning much better than we currently do.

 

Phil Ruthven AO is Founder of the Ruthven Institute and Founder of IBISWorld. The Ruthven Institute was created to help any business that wants to emulate world best performance and profitability using the Golden Rules of Success, based on over 45 years of corporate and industry analyses and strategy work. The Ruthven Institute is happy to provide a fuller explanation of these 12 Golden Rules.

 

4 Comments
Angus
May 08, 2021

Did we establish there is an underperformance and the size and duration of it? I was hoping to learn something. This is just an opinion piece.

Dane
May 06, 2021

It's mind boggling that investors can have over half their equity exposure in a skewed market that represents 2-3% of the investable universe. 'Home bias' on steroids. This article is quite revealing. Shows there is some work to do if we wish to become a dynamic economy and produce more national champions that compete on a global stage. What always stands out to me is that if you compare the top 20 stocks on the ASX there has been almost no change for decades, save for a few buy-now-pay later stonks. Whereas the US market has completely evolved.

john
May 07, 2021

It doesn't matter if you only have equity in 0.1% of "the investable universe", so long as it performs, and the ASX20 certainly does. Not so much as the US in the last decade, but the comparison is complex, eg. the ASX pays higher dividends [which can be re-invested more profitably by an individual than automatic reinvestment into their company of origin], and their mostly fully franked. Ashley Owen's articles in Firstlinks [Nov & Dec 2014] and ensuing comments discusses it all in more detail. The fact that the ASX20 stocks 'haven't changed for decades' exemplifies the simplicity of the strategy, most years they churn out some billion dollar profit, and you don't need to worry about currency issues, higher brokerage, fees to advisors who want you to invest in the whole universe and beyond. But this is not what the article is about.

Jennifer J
May 05, 2021

We're lucky when all we do is dig up rocks, grow stuff and provide services to others. The US is 27% IT and we are always criticising them.

 

Leave a Comment:

RELATED ARTICLES

In a short-term world, take a longer-term view

A case study in good business culture versus bad

Where Australia's largest ethical investor is finding opportunities

banner

Most viewed in recent weeks

Are term deposits attractive right now?

If you’re like me, you may have put money into term deposits over the past year and it’s time to decide whether to roll them over or look elsewhere. Here are the pros and cons of cash versus other assets right now.

Uncomfortable truths: The real cost of living in retirement

How useful are the retirement savings and spending targets put out by various groups such as ASFA? Not very, and it's reducing the ability of ordinary retirees to fully understand their retirement income options.

Is Australia ready for its population growth over the next decade?

Australia will have 3.7 million more people in a decade's time, though the growth won't be evenly distributed. Over 85s will see the fastest growth, while the number of younger people will barely rise. 

How retiree spending plummets as we age

There's been little debate on how spending changes as people progress through retirement. Yet, it's a critical issue as it can have a significant impact on the level of savings required at the point of retirement.

20 US stocks to buy and hold forever

Recently, I compiled a list of ASX stocks that you could buy and hold forever. Here’s a follow-up list of US stocks that you could own indefinitely, including well-known names like Microsoft, as well as lesser-known gems.

The public servants demanding $3m super tax exemption

The $3 million super tax will capture retired, and soon to retire, public servants and politicians who are members of defined benefit superannuation schemes. Lobbying efforts for exemptions to the tax are intensifying.

Latest Updates

Property

Financial pathways to buying a home require planning

In the six months of my battle with brain cancer, one part of financial markets has fascinated me, and it’s probably not what you think. What's led the pages of my reading is real estate, especially residential.

Meg on SMSFs: $3 million super tax coming whether we’re ready or not

A Senate Committee reported back last week with a majority recommendation to pass the $3 million super tax unaltered. It seems that the tax is coming, and this is what those affected should be doing now to prepare for it.

Economy

Household spending falls as higher costs bite

Shoppers are cutting back spending at supermarkets, gyms, and bakeries to cope with soaring insurance and education costs as household spending continues to slump. Renters especially are feeling the pinch.

Shares

Who gets the gold stars this bank reporting season?

The recent bank reporting season saw all the major banks report solid results, large share buybacks, and very low bad debts. Here's a look at the main themes from the results, and the winners and losers.

Shares

Small caps v large caps: Don’t be penny wise but pound foolish

What is the catalyst for smalls caps to start outperforming their larger counterparts? Cheap relative valuation is bullish though it isn't a catalyst, so what else could drive a long-awaited turnaround?

Financial planning

Estate planning made simple, Part II

'Putting your affairs in order' is a term that is commonly used when people are approaching the end of their life. It is not as easy as it sounds, though it should not overwhelming, or consume all of your spare time.

Financial planning

Where Baby Boomer wealth will end up

By 2028, all Baby Boomers will be eligible for retirement and the Baby Boomer bubble will have all but deflated. Where will this generation's money end up, and what are the implications for the wealth management industry?

Sponsors

Alliances

© 2024 Morningstar, Inc. All rights reserved.

Disclaimer
The data, research and opinions provided here are for information purposes; are not an offer to buy or sell a security; and are not warranted to be correct, complete or accurate. Morningstar, its affiliates, and third-party content providers are not responsible for any investment decisions, damages or losses resulting from, or related to, the data and analyses or their use. To the extent any content is general advice, it has been prepared for clients of Morningstar Australasia Pty Ltd (ABN: 95 090 665 544, AFSL: 240892), without reference to your financial objectives, situation or needs. For more information refer to our Financial Services Guide. You should consider the advice in light of these matters and if applicable, the relevant Product Disclosure Statement before making any decision to invest. Past performance does not necessarily indicate a financial product’s future performance. To obtain advice tailored to your situation, contact a professional financial adviser. Articles are current as at date of publication.
This website contains information and opinions provided by third parties. Inclusion of this information does not necessarily represent Morningstar’s positions, strategies or opinions and should not be considered an endorsement by Morningstar.